Recessions are hard to predict, but there are some tools that can help you determine if the U.S. economy is in a recession or might be headed that way. Key indicators include GDP growth trends, unemployment rates, consumer spending patterns, and manufacturing activity.
The yield curve, particularly an inversion of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, is also a widely watched predictor of potential downturns. Additionally, reports from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions, can provide further insights. Monitoring these factors alongside global economic conditions can help assess recession risks more accurately.
